The prospects of American aid and Trump’s presidential bid: highlights from Western media

Authors

Hennadii Kats , Artur Gmyria

The prospects of American aid: highlights from Western media

The Biden administration continues to push for the security assistance package for Ukraine, which is likely to be the last one this year. Meanwhile, Beijing is ditching Kyiv’s diplomatic efforts to promote its peace formula.

NATO is practicing the deployment of its troops in response to a Russian attack, and the U.S. Supreme Court will decide whether Donald Trump will be barred from the 2024 presidential election.

offers a digest of Western mass media at the end of the January 15–19, 2024, business week.

The prospects of receiving aid from the U.S. in 2024

U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration is starting to realize that the $60 billion aid package for Ukraine will likely be the last one before the 2024 presidential election, CNN argues.

Biden met with House and Senate lawmakers at the White House on Wednesday, January 17, to once again outline the disastrous result of cutting off military support for Ukraine. However, House Speaker Mike Johnson said that the United States couldn’t spend billions of dollars without a clear strategy.

"I told the president in the meeting today again, as I’ve been saying repeatedly, ‘Sir, you have to articulate what the strategy is. What is the endgame?’" Johnson said in an interview with CNN.

Chuck Schumer, the Senate majority leader, awaiting President Joe Biden’s visit to the Senate on January 17, 2024. Photo: Getty Images

Meanwhile, inside the White House, NATO headquarters and in Kyiv, there is a keen awareness that if Donald Trump is reelected in November, he will likely slash support for Kyiv.

"The number one reason Republicans will not come out in favor of a supplemental for Ukraine is they don’t want to offend candidate Trump and his supporters," Democratic Representative Mike Quigley said on CNN Max on Wednesday. "He’s already made it clear what he would do — the war would be over on his first day, which means Putin gets to keep the borders he has, if not more."

Meanwhile, U.S. and Western intelligence officials believe that Russia’s war in Ukraine is likely to go on for much longer than Biden’s first term — at least two more years, or even five more years of fighting, according to some assessments. That’s why Democrats and pro-Ukrainian Republicans, such as Lindsey Graham and Michael McCaul, are pushing for Congress to approve enough funding to hold Ukrainian military forces over through the 2024 election.

Western military officials believe that neither Russia nor Ukraine are capable of large-scale offensive operations this year.

Why does China dodge meeting with Zelenskyi?

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi wanted to meet with Chinese Premier Li Qiang on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, but the Chinese delegation ignored the request from Ukrainians, Politico reports. It’s the latest sign China has no intention of pushing for an end to Russia’s full-scale war on Ukraine but is instead providing Russia with materials for military use.

China’s decision not to meet with Ukrainians was intentional, senior U.S. officials say. Thus, according to one source, China has refused any gatherings after Russia urged it to cease diplomatic encounters with Ukraine. Meanwhile, a Ukrainian official said that there had been no meeting with Chinese officials on the delegation’s schedule and that Kyiv had never requested one.

Putin and Xi, together with their situational ally Viktor Orban, at the opening of the Belt and Road Forum. Photo: Getty Images

What kind of peace Beijing wants

Even though Beijing tried to present itself as a potential peace broker, it’s unlikely to leverage its deep and growing Russia ties to push for the end of the war, analysts told CNN.

"China thinks it is already playing an important role in moving toward peace. It’s just the Chinese version of peace is not what Zelensky wants to see," said Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Washington-based Stimson Center think tank.

Last year, after Chinese leader Xi Jinping spoke to Zelensky for the first time, Beijing released its own proposal for peace, which, unlike Ukraine’s demands, calls for a ceasefire without the prior withdrawal of Russian troops.

Yun Sun argues that the Chinese peace proposal was meant to guard Russia from a devastating defeat. Now that this outcome looks less likely, China has taken the observer position.

The next chance for Ukrainians to meet with Beijing representatives will be at the peace summit in Switzerland, which Zelenskyi announced on Monday, January 15. The president said that "all countries that respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity are welcome to attend," including those from the Global South and China.

China’s Foreign Ministry sidestepped a direct reply to the invitation, saying China’s position "is centered on promoting talks for peace" and supported "any efforts for peace."

NATO is preparing for a war with Russia

According to Reuters, NATO is launching its largest exercise since the Cold War, rehearsing how U.S. troops could reinforce European allies in countries bordering Russia.

Some 90,000 troops are due to join the Steadfast Defender 2024 drills that will run through May, the alliance's top commander Christopher Cavoli said on Thursday, January 18.

More than 50 ships from aircraft carriers to destroyers will take part, as well as more than 80 fighter jets, helicopters and drones and at least 1,100 combat vehicles including 133 tanks and 533 infantry fighting vehicles.

NATO is growing increasingly wary of the threat to its own security. Photo: Getty Images

Cavoli said the drills would rehearse NATO's execution of its regional plans, the first defense plans the alliance has drawn up in decades at the 2023 Vilnius summit, during a "simulated emerging conflict scenario with a near-peer adversary." The last exercises of a similar size were Reforger in 1988.

During the second part of the Steadfast Defender exercise, a special focus will be on the deployment of NATO's quick reaction force to Poland. The drills will also be held in the Baltic countries, Norway, and Romania, while Germany will be a hub for incoming reinforcements.

Will Donald Trump be disqualified from the 2024 presidential election?

Donald Trump urged the Supreme Court on Thursday, January 18, to ensure his name can appear on election ballots nationwide, The Washington Post reports. Trump warned of "chaos and bedlam" if the justices do not reverse Colorado’s top court, which disqualified the former president because of him taking part in the riots on January 6, 2021.

Trump’s attorney, Jonathan Mitchell, asked the justices to put a "swift and decisive end" to efforts in more than 30 states to remove him from primary and general election ballots based on a section of the 14th Amendment that bars those who have engaged in insurrection from holding office.

A number of Western media have argued that Trump’s victory at the 2024 election would have a negative impact on the war in Ukraine because of him willing to end it quickly.

The high court has scheduled oral arguments on the Colorado ballot case for February 8.

Colorado’s ruling was the first time a court found that a presidential candidate could be kept off the ballot because of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. Similar lawsuits were filed in Maine, Massachusetts, and Illinois, where judges have put the cases on hold while waiting for the decision of the Supreme Court. In three more states, namely Minnesota, Michigan, and Oregon, the courts decreed to keep Trump on the ballot.

Trump’s attorneys argue that the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol was not an insurrection. They also say that Section 3 does not apply to the office of the president and state courts cannot enforce the constitutional provision.

Meanwhile, those who challenge Trump have said that the Constitution’s language barring insurrectionists from office is clear, that it applies to presidents and that it does not require an act of Congress to be enforced.

An amicus brief in support of keeping Trump on the ballot that was submitted Thursday included the signatures of nearly 180 congressional Republicans. Among them was Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who previously said Trump was responsible for provoking the 2021 insurrection.