Will Ukraine be able to accumulate enough gas by the winter of 2025: possible scenarios

Author

Valery Moisieiev

Natural gas prices on the Ukrainian market at the end of May reached UAH 23,000 per thousand cubic meters (including VAT) — this is the maximum in more than two years, since February 2023, ExPro reports. The growth of prices on the domestic market is associated with market mechanisms, primarily with the balance of supply and demand. In May, there was a significant advantage of demand over supply, which stimulates price growth.

The supply has decreased largely because the Cabinet of Ministers, since the beginning of April, obliged Ukrnafta to sell gas from its own production to Naftogaz on PSO terms (that is, at preferential, not market prices). In addition, Ukrnafta-managed Ukrnaftoburenie has also stopped selling gas on the free market.

Gas prices on the Ukrainian market exceed prices on the European market, the difference between prices in recent days has reached 2 euros per 1 MWh, which is the highest value in February 2024. But this difference is not yet enough to fully restore commercial gas imports to Ukraine. If it continues to increase, there is a high probability that private companies will resume gas imports to Ukraine.

At the end of May, the DiXi Group analytical center presented its assessment of the situation on the gas market on the eve of the season of increased demand and during the period of stockpiling for the winter. presents the most important points that were made at the presentation.

The situation on the gas market in the summer of 2025

The main task of the summer season is not only to ensure a stable supply of gas, but also to strategically prepare for the next heating season. The key priority is to accumulate sufficient volumes of resources as a guarantee of energy security in the event of a crisis, noted Elena Lapenko, General Manager for Security and Sustainability at DiXi Group.

Gas imports to Ukraine

Gas consumption in 2024 was almost in line with 2023 levels, especially in the second and third quarters. This shows that demand has stabilized after a sharp decline in 2022. In 2023, it decreased by 2.3% compared to the previous year, partly due to the implementation of energy efficiency measures. In the fourth quarter of 2024, there was a slight increase in consumption, caused by an increase in the use of gas for electricity generation.

The situation is complicated by the threat to the security of gas infrastructure. In 2023-2024, targeted attacks were recorded on production and transportation facilities, which limits the possibilities for accumulation.

Gas accumulation in UGS

As of mid-May, about 6.14 billion cubic meters were accumulated in Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities (UGS). The target for gas accumulation in storage facilities has not been officially announced, but, according to DiXi Group, it may be at least 14-15 billion cubic meters as of November 1, 2025. This exceeds the 13 billion cubic meters that were accumulated in 2024. The additional volume should become a strategic buffer if the situation worsens in the fall or winter.

The dynamics of working gas volumes in Ukraine's underground storage facilities indicate an unprecedented challenge in 2025. The record low level of reserves at the beginning of the injection season requires accelerated accumulation, taking into account the risks of damage to infrastructure due to military action. "Urgent political decisions are needed on funds for the purchase of gas and the debugging of new import routes," Lapenko noted.

The current season of gas injection into storage facilities began later than last year, which is due to cold weather in the first half of April and damaged domestic gas production due to massive Russian attacks. In May, the damaged gas production facilities were actively restored, but it has not yet been possible to return to the January production level (54 million cubic meters per day).

In May, 800 million cubic meters of gas were pumped into storage facilities, 40% more than in the same period last year. The growth is primarily due to an increase in gas imports. Its volumes in the last days of May exceeded 20 million cubic meters per day.

The main gas supply routes are through Hungary (60% of the total volume), Slovakia (23%) and Poland (17%). Ukraine also has a contract with the Polish company Orlen for the supply of 300 million cubic meters of liquefied gas.

According to estimates, total gas imports in 2025 may amount to 4 to 8 billion cubic meters. This requires $2.5-3 billion. Part of the financial needs are covered by international partners. These include funds from the EBRD and grants from the Norwegian government.

Gas accumulation scenarios in 2025

DiXi Group has formed three possible scenarios for gas accumulation by the beginning of the 2025/2026 heating season.

The optimistic scenario assumes the accumulation of up to 15 billion cubic meters of gas in underground storage facilities by November 1. To achieve this, the daily injection rate should reach 32 million cubic meters. The volume of imports is up to 5 billion cubic meters. If this scenario is implemented, Ukraine will be well prepared for the winter period even in the face of serious external challenges.

Forecasted gas balance, medium scenario

The medium scenario assumes reaching last year's level — 13 billion cubic meters. Injection should be carried out at a rate of 24 million cubic meters per day. The volume of necessary imports will be about 3.7 billion cubic meters. This scenario will cover basic needs, but leaves less room for maneuver in the event of a crisis.

The pessimistic scenario assumes the accumulation of only 11-12 billion cubic meters. The volume of imports is up to 2 billion cubic meters, with a probable need for additional purchases in winter at higher prices.

Key risks and success factors

Among the key risks:

a decrease in domestic production, especially by private companies;
insufficient financing of imports;
the impact of weather conditions in October, which may limit the rate of injection or lead to an early increase in demand.

Success factors may include:

concluding long-term contracts that will ensure the stability of purchases;
using joint procurement mechanisms to reduce costs;
accelerating the rate of injection as early as June;
guaranteeing financing through grants, loans and government guarantees;
attracting the private sector through the development of exchange trading and a transparent market;
modernization and strengthening of infrastructure protection.

The situation in the gas industry in 2025

Artem Petrenko, Executive Director of the Association of Gas Producers of Ukraine, noted that since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the aggressor has been shelling the gas production infrastructure. The industry suffered the greatest losses in February — March 2025, which forced a number of companies to temporarily stop production for security reasons and entailed the need to import gas. Since the beginning of the year, 1.5 billion cubic meters of gas have already been contracted. In addition, Naftogaz, with the support of the government, attracted financing in the amount of 410 million euros to purchase almost 1 billion cubic meters of gas.

"Our own gas remains the basis for preparing for the new autumn-winter season, so everyone is working at maximum. Enterprises are even setting records. For example, Ukrgazdobycha drilled 107 thousand meters of wells in the first quarter, which is almost twice as much as in the same period last year," said Petrenko.

The market continues to face challenges. Due to the shelling and the imposition of special duties (PSO) on Ukrnafta, the volume of gas available to the commercial sector has decreased, which leads to an increase in the cost of the resource for business. New distributed generation creates additional demand for gas.

Increasing our own gas production will remain a priority in the coming years, the head of the association is convinced. To attract new investors, two tenders have been announced on the terms of dividing production into the Mezhyhirya and Svechansky areas. Ukrnafta begins exploration work on the Oleska area.

"Extracting companies need a stable tax policy, clear rules of the game on the market and an assessment of the expected demand for the resource. These are the main factors for the development of the industry and the increase in production," Petrenko summarized.