The system is on the brink: hospitalization of patients with COVID-19 has reached the limit. What's next

Author

Natalia Myronova

In 22 regions of Ukraine, the hospitalization rate of patients with COVID-19 has been exceeded. The number of confirmed cases per day is consistently high. On April 6, 2021, 15,415 new cases of coronavirus and 415 deaths were registered in Ukraine, 5,587 people were hospitalized.

has compiled information about the situation with hospitalization of patients in Ukraine and what will happen next.

Regions with the highest rates of hospital bed occupancy by COVID-19 patients

The largest percentage of bed occupancy by the coronavirus patients in Ukraine is in the Khmelnytskyi region. 82.9% of beds are occupied there. From April 7, 2021, quarantine will be tightened in the region. It will be included into the "red" zone of COVID-19 spread. Such restrictions will be in effect until at least April 18th.

In Slavuta, Khmelnytskyi region, a mobile hospital of the State Emergency Service was deployed. It consists of 35 tents, of which 24 are a hospital base with 120 beds. The hospital has an intensive care unit and patient wards. The beds are equipped with individual oxygen concentrators. The hospital is equipped with autonomous life support systems and can function as an independent health care institution.

In second place in terms of the bed occupancy by patients with coronavirus is Kyiv. From April 5, 2021, a strict lockdown was introduced in the capital. In Kyiv, 80.8% of beds are occupied. Earlier, the Mayor of Kyiv, Vitali Klitschko, reported that if a collapse of the medical system occurs, a state of emergency may be introduced in the capital.

"We have come very close to a situation where we may have a collapse of the medical system. If the numbers go off scale and there is a collapse of the medical system, we will have no choice but to go to a state of emergency, "he said on the air of Ukraine 24.

Experts believe that it is necessary to impose a curfew in Kyiv, since the incidence and burden on the medical system are very high, and many people in Kyiv ignore the current quarantine restrictions.

Percentage of occupied beds by patients with COVID-19:

Khmelnytskyi region—82.9% are occupied (a total of 3,093 beds, of which 2,565 are occupied);
Kyiv—80.8% are occupied (a total of 6,261 beds, of which 5,059 are occupied);
Mykolaiv region—78% are occupied (a total of 2,525 beds, of which 1,970 are occupied);
Kyiv region—75.9% are occupied (a total of 3,310 beds, of which 2,513 are occupied);
Lviv region—73.8% are occupied (a total of 4,608 beds, of which 3,400 are occupied);
Dnipropetrovsk region—69.1% are occupied (a total 5,683 beds, of which 3,924 are occupied);
Zhytomyr region—66.3% are occupied (a total of 3,010 beds, of which 1,994 are occupied);
Vinnytsia region—64.7% are occupied (a total 3,494 beds, of which 2,260 are occupied);
Kharkiv region—64.1% are occupied (a total 4,922 beds, of which 3,153 are occupied);
Chernihiv region—63.4% are occupied (a total of 2,180 beds, of which 1,382 are employed);
Odesa region—62.5% are occupied (a total of 3,994 beds, of which 2,496 are occupied);
Sumy region—61.1% are occupied (a total of 2,116 beds, of which 1,294 are occupied);
Rivne region—60.3% are occupied (a total of 2,078 beds, of which 1,252 are occupied);
Ternopil region—58.4% are occupied (a total 2,479 beds, of which 1,448 are occupied);
Zakarpattia region—57.7% are occupied (a total 2,550 beds, of which 1,472 are occupied);
Chernivtsi region—57.1% are occupied (a total 2,473 beds, of which 1,423 are occupied);
Volyn region—53.7% are occupied (a total of 2,017 beds, of which 1,084 are occupied);
Poltava region—53.4% are occupied (a total of 2,388 beds, of which 1,276 are occupied);
Zaporizhzhia region—51.8% are occupied (a total of 3,036 beds, of which 1,574 are occupied);
Donetsk region—51.2% are occupied (a total of 3,828 beds, of which 1,958 are occupied);
Cherkasy region—49.1% are occupied (a total of 3,118 beds, of which 1,530 are occupied);
Ivano-Frankivsk region—48.8% are occupied (a total of 4,177 beds, of which 2,038 are occupied);
Kirovograd region—43.5% are occupied (a total of 1,110 beds, of which 483 are occupied);
Lugansk region—39.5% are occupied (a total of 1,432 beds, of which 565 are occupied);
Kherson region—27.5% are occupied (a total of 2,284 beds, of which 628 are occupied).

Consistently badly: how is the third wave in Ukraine going

According to the Minister of Health Maksym Stepanov, the third wave of coronavirus incidence continues in Ukraine. Over the next two weeks, the number of new cases will only increase. It can reach 25,000 new cases per day. According to the Academician of the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Medical Sciences of Ukraine, Doctor of Sciences in Biology, Chairman of the Commission on Biosafety and Biological Protection at the NSDC Serhiy Komisarenko, the peak of patients with coronavirus may be in about a month.

"I believe that the situation is threatening. We must have a clear state position on this matter. The introduction of more stringent quarantine regulations, even a lockdown, should be at the beginning of an increase in the number of people infected, at the beginning of an increase in the infection spread. The peak, I believe, will not be earlier than in a month, maybe even later. But this maximum can be very high or moderate. Now we are doing everything to ensure that the number of people who will be infected and get sick is as small as possible," he said in a comment to the Obozrevatel.

According to Semen Yesylevskyy, a leading researcher at the Institute of Physics of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, by mid-April 2021 Ukraine may reach a figure of about 450 deaths per day. If 95% of Ukrainians wear masks properly in public places, there will be 50 fewer deaths per day at the peak, and the peak will come a week earlier.

But there is another scenario, a more realistic one. There will be over 60,000 new cases of coronavirus infection per day at the peak.

"This wave will be much higher, that is, the additive mortality can easily exceed 1,000 per day at its peak," he adds.

According to immunologist Vadym Aristov, not all patients with coronavirus are included in the statistics. Perhaps over time, the number of people who are admitted to hospitals with severe forms of coronavirus will increase.

"The hospitalization rate is crazy, but we keep as many patients at home as possible. Many stay in usual beds or oxygen beds and do not end up in intensive care. This is evidenced by the assessment of the mortality in intensive care made by the National Academy of Sciences. They summed up the results of last year: 76% is a very high mortality rate in the world," he said on the air of Ukraine 24.