Sad forecast figures and a vaccine at the end of the tunnel: how the coronavirus will change the world in 2021

Author

Natalia Myronova

It's a new year, but the coronavirus continues to transform reality. Countries are beginning to vaccinate, some of them are increasing quarantine, and Ukraine will have a new lockdown from January 8 to 24, 2021.

has been figuring out how the coronavirus will continue to change the global economy and human lives and what to expect in the coming 2021.

Sad forecast figures

According to Moody's research, the impact of the pandemic on the global economy will continue in 2021. In the short term, countries with low credit ratings will be most affected, but in the long term, the consequences will affect all countries.

Only China will be able to avoid the GDP collapse—analysts predict the growth of its economy at 7%. In other G20 countries, the economy is expected to fall by 4.6%.

"China is likely to be the only major economy in the world to demonstrate positive growth this year," Cornell University China expert Eswar Prasad told the Financial Times.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Economic Outlook has also downgraded its forecasts for 2021. GDP will drop especially hard in European countries. Sad forecasts will remain at least until the mass vaccination against coronavirus begins in the world.

"After a significant drop of 4.2% in 2020, global GDP will increase by about 4.25% in 2021 and by 3.75% in 2022. In general, by the end of 2021, the volume of the global economy will return to pre-crisis levels thanks to a strong recovery in China but the GDP dynamics of the world's major economies will be seriously different," the OECD believes.

But good things are there too: the OECD expects a gradual but uneven recovery in the global economy in 2021-2022, again after the vaccine becomes widely available. The forecast could be more optimistic if there was progress in the vaccines development and distribution. But the forecast may turn out to be more pessimistic if the second wave of coronavirus intensifies.

Ukrainian hopes

According to the government's forecast, in 2021, the Ukrainian economy growth should be at least 5%.

"We enter 2021 with economic growth forecasts of almost + 5%. We have everything needed for this: strategy, resources, and willingness to work together for the good of our country," said Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal.

He added that by the end of 2020, budget revenues will be significantly overfulfilled.

According to the Minister of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture Ihor Petrashko, the COVID-19 pandemic will most negatively affect the economy at the beginning of 2021, however, business support programs and soft loans will help mitigate this impact.

According to the ICU group forecasts, in the Q1 of 2021 inflation will approach 6% and will be kept at this level throughout the year. Inflation in 2021 will be stimulated, in particular, by the minimum wage raising and economy reviving.

At the same time, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) predicts the Ukrainian economic growth in 2021, but recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic will only take place in 2022. The National Bank expects economic growth by about 4%.

Vaccine at the end of the tunnel

Ukraine will receive 16 million doses of coronavirus vaccine under the COVAX program. President Volodymyr Zelensky wants Ukraine to receive 100-200 thousand doses in January.

The Ministry of Health is in talks to purchase vaccines from Pfizer and several other companies. If they agree, then it is most likely that we will have it in April-May we will have it in April-May 2021. The Center for Public Health (CPH) and the National Technical Group of Experts on Immunization have established criteria according to which 12 priority categories of people will be identified who will be the first to receive the coronavirus vaccine. They will cover nearly 21 million people.

According to the group Rating, in Ukraine, about 40% of residents do not want to be vaccinated against coronavirus even for free. At the same time, 53% are ready to get vaccinated if it is free, and 35% if it is paid. At the same time, 57% of Ukrainians are not going to get paid vaccinations.

Ukrainians began to fear the compulsory vaccination introduction. Earlier, a member of the Ukrainian Bar Association, managing partner of Pekarenin Mikhailov JSC, Nazar Mikhailov, told that in Part 7 of Art. 41 of the draft law No. 4142 it is established that a person can be vaccinated after a medical examination in the absence of contraindications. If a person refuses compulsory preventive vaccinations, the doctor must take a written confirmation of the refusal from them.

At the same time, the world is approaching a mass vaccination against the coronavirus. A campaign to vaccinate the population against COVID-19 has begun in the EU. The population is also vaccinated in the USA, Britain, Mexico, Canada, Bahrain and Israel.

First of all, vaccinations are given to doctors and people who are at risk for health reasons or age.