Grain and oilseeds harvest in 2022 may be half that of last year

Author

Valery Moiseev

The production of grains and oilseeds in 2022 in Ukraine is preliminarily estimated at 53.3 million tons, which is 51% less than the previous season's record. This year's grain harvest may be the lowest over the past 10 years, and oilseeds — over 15 years, APK-Inform analysts believe.

For the 2022 harvest, the area under winter grain crops decreased by 7% compared to last year, to 7.6 million hectares, which is almost the same as in 2020. At the same time, the area under spring grain and leguminous crops, the sowing of which began in March, over the occupation of some territories and hostilities, may be reduced by 39% to 4.7 million hectares.

The total area under oilseed crops in 2022 may reach 6.8—6.9 million hectares, taking into account the areas already sown with winter rapeseed.

A change in the structure of oilseed crops is expected. The share of sunflower acreage is projected to decrease from 73% in 2021 to 61% in 2022, while the share of rapeseed will increase from 12% to 21% and soybean from 15% to 17%.

Over hostilities, the sowing campaign in nine regions looks very dangerous: namely in the Chernihiv, Sumy, Kyiv, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and Mykolaiv. Risky areas for sowing are in the Zhytomyr, Poltava, and Dnepropetrovsk regions.

In addition to a decrease in the area under crops, a general decrease in yields is expected due to the limited access of farmers to the necessary resources, such as fuel, fertilizers, and plant protection products.

On March 31, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal reported that the spring sowing campaign had already begun in 20 regions of Ukraine. According to him, there is cautious optimism regarding the area under spring crops.

According to the latest data, sowing can be carried out on 6 million hectares of land, which is 80% of the area sown last year.

First Deputy Minister of Agrarian Policy Taras Vysotskyi reported earlier that, given the situation in the country, a decrease in the area under crops of high-margin crops, namely sunflower and corn, is expected. However, the area under crops that are easier to produce, but important from the point of view of food security, will increase. First of all, these are pea, barley, and oats.

"There will be a shift from export-oriented crops to food crops for domestic consumption," Vysotskyi said.