Western media continue to cover the war in Ukraine—today, on March 12, they report that Putin and his inner circle did not understand the situation in Ukraine before the invasion at all, and therefore they lost a lot.
At the same time, stopping Putin is not easy: the Russian elites are trembling, and the bloodthirsty dictator surrounds himself with former KGB agents and close friends.
Also, the British have designed five scenarios a war in Ukraine could follow—from freezing the conflict to a nuclear strike, and the Americans report that US citizens support Ukraine as a friendly state.
has compiled an up-to-date overview of what the European and American media are reporting, covering 17 days of an active Russian invasion.
Dysfunction stalks Kremlin: Putin had unrealistic expectations
Photo: Getty Images
The Guardian notes that earlier this week, the Russian Defense Ministry acknowledged that young conscripts had been sent into battle and some taken prisoner.
The admission, notable in itself given Russia’s cautious attempts to control the narrative about the war, came just a day after Putin assured his nation in a video address that conscripts "are not participating and will not participate" in the conflict.
This prompted some to question whether the Russian leader lied in his statement or was simply provided inaccurate information.
"This incident reveals some of the unrealistic expectations Putin had when starting this military operation," said Tatyana Stanovaya, the founder of R.Politik.
"It looks likely that Putin genuinely thought Russia would be able to take Ukraine by storm and instructed his military not to use conscripts. But this is just one of the many aspects that have turned out differently in reality," she adds.
Kremlin understood nothing about Ukraine
Photo: Getty Images
Two weeks into the war, it has become evident that the Russian army has failed in its initial plan to quickly seize major cities–including the capital, Kyiv, and Kharkiv in north-eastern Ukraine. The attack on Odesa, a crucial port city in the south, has also stalled, and Russian land advances have been thwarted repeatedly.
More than a week ago, Russia admitted that almost 500 of its soldiers had been killed, a figure that has not since been updated, while US officials estimate that between 5,000 and 6,000 Russian troops have died *(Ukrainians estimate the number of deaths at more than 12,000 people, sources in the FSB admitted somewhere up to 10,000 people a week ago—Ed. note).
The Kremlin’s disastrous move to invade was rooted in giant lapses of expertise about Ukraine, Gabuev notes. He adds that officials close to Putin who helped plan the invasion sincerely believed that many Ukrainians would welcome Russian soldiers, and that the country’s leadership would offer little resistance.
According to the expert, only a very small group of generals were informed about the war, and they didn’t ask difficult questions that could help prepare for any scenarios other than a speedy Russian victory.
Russia did not expect such resistance and such sanctions
Photo: Getty Images
Reports from captured Russian soldiers, as well as leaked audio conversations between the Russian military, have indicated that much of the army was not informed of the invasion until the last moment.
Russia also appears to have underestimated how united the West would be in the face of the invasion.
Shagina says that while the Kremlin expected sanctions, it has probably been surprised by the speed and unity with which the West and major multinational corporations have cut ties with Russia.
Given the military and political setbacks, hints have emerged over the last few days that Putin may retract some of his initial far-reaching diplomatic demands, including his commitment to pushing through regime change in Ukraine.
Denazification no longer required, but Crimea and ORDLO left
Photo: Pixabay
On Monday, Putin’s trusted spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, told Reuters that Russia was ready to halt military operations if Kyiv meets its list of conditions.
These terms require Ukraine to:
- cease military action;
- enshrine neutrality in its Constitution;
- acknowledge Crimea as Russian territory;
- recognise the so-called DPR and LPR—the pseudo-republics of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
The demands omitted to mention the "denazification" of the Ukrainian leadership, previously flagged by Putin as the main motivation for the invasion.
However, most analysts and Western officials still believe that an eventual Russian victory remains likely given its overwhelming military power.
Hopes for Russian business and Putin's unlimited power
Photo: Getty Images
While some in the west have pinned their hopes on Russia’s business and political elites stopping the war, experts in Russia generally agree that the invasion has not yet challenged Putin’s hold on power.
There has been some quiet grumbling among some of the country’s richest citizens who have lost millions following western sanctions. Oleg Deripaska, an oligarch close to the Kremlin’s leader, has raised alarm in a series of public posts about the war’s economic consequences for Russia. But the elites try not to criticize Putin personally.
Meanwhile, some senior officials also look to be taken aback by the invasion. Russian journalist Farida Rustamova, who has connections among officials, stated the following:
On Thursday, the Kommersant business news outlet reported that the influential head of Russia’s central bank, Elvira Nabiullina, was considering resigning. A source close to Nabiullina confirmed this to the Guardian:
But even if the political and business elites did openly revolt, questions remain about what real power they have over Putin: he is increasingly surrounding himself with former KGB agents and old friends.
How war in Ukraine to end: Putin has lost a lot, but there are still forces
Photo: @oksana_kuliesh/Instagram
Flawed assumptions, poor planning, bad tactics and misjudgment of the Ukrainian resistance has meant that President Putin’s war has not gone nearly as well as he would have liked, The Times reports.
Senior commanders have been killed, equipment worth billions of pounds has been destroyed and the Russian air force still does not have control of the skies.
The State Service for Special Communications of Ukraine provided an infographic on destroyed Russian equipment worth $6.5 billion as of March 9.
Photo: State Special Communications Service of Ukraine
However, on March 12. Forbes.ua gave a more modest estimate of $5.1 billion, but this loss is still serious.
Russia has committed all of the troops that it positioned on Ukraine’s border, but reinforcements are coming from the far east. Moscow has even had to turn to Syria to recruit foreign fighters for urban combat.
However, some analysts believe that assumptions of the demise of the Russian army are overhyped because Putin still has reserves to complete the invasion.
Further, the British outlet gives five scenarios that may play out in the future.
Scenario 1: Surrender Crimea and Donbas, bring in peacekeepers
Photo: Getty Images
Although diplomatic talks have stalled so far, either side could be forced to come to some sort of agreement to end the fighting.
James Rogers, director of research at the Council on Geostrategy, believes that a negotiated settlement is quite possible, though it may only be temporary.
Such a move would require a demoralized Ukrainian army that sees no way of being able to force Russia to retreat. Rogers said that at this point there could be an internationally backed settlement, involving recognition of annexed Crimea, as Russian territory.
It may involve UN peacekeepers deployed to the "People’s Republics" of Donetsk and Luhansk to the east, and all Russian troops withdrawing from the remainder of Ukrainian territory.
What happens after that depends on Putin and his objectives, he added. It might only be a temporary respite for Ukraine, leading to another offensive in the future.
Scenario 2: Ukraine's victory with Western weapons
Photo: Max Levin
Western military chiefs are determined to hand over as many weapons to Ukraine as possible in the belief that several days of pain are inflicted on the Russians for every day the Ukrainian armed forces can hold them back.
This is because Russia was ill-equipped for a sustained military campaign, with some troops said to have had only three days of rations.
Russian troops will soon require rotating as they’ve lived in vehicles for months, he explained.
This will place further strain on their chaotic logistical chain and cause further delays and loss of momentum, again giving Ukraine further time to shore up defenses."
Clark believes that Ukraine could continue to "bleed Russia dry" in the weeks ahead both in terms of manpower and resources.
According to him, the Russians could sustain the current level of fighting for only another four to six weeks.
After that could see further degradation of the military and an inability to seize Kyiv. If Ukraine keeps doing what it is doing, there could be some form of stalemate in Russia.
Some analysts believe it is possible, in such circumstances, that Putin could be ousted by key players in the Kremlin.
Scenario 3: Loss of Kyiv and defeat of Ukraine over Western weakness
Photo: Joint Forces Operation
Western officials believe that Putin’s primary objective is to take Kyiv and topple President Zelenskyy’s government. Although Russia has faced many problems and not secured its initial objectives, the weight of Russian firepower bears down on Ukraine.
Putin has still used only a fraction of the air power at his disposal and if more jets are flown in key cities could be levelled to the ground. The Russians could slowly strangle Kyiv, cutting it off from food and fuel supplies and forcing Zelenskyy to surrender or face the prospect of bombs and missiles raining down on the capital, killing tens of thousands of his own people.
Before it even gets to that stage, the Ukrainian President could be murdered by mercenaries. If that happens, Ukrainian forces might lose momentum and Russian troops could move across the country.
Cormac Smith, a former British official who advised the Ukrainian government for two years, said that the more the West "cowed" then the "more likely Ukraine will eventually be overwhelmed militarily".
He said the West’s decision not to impose a no-fly zone and its failure to provide arms quickly enough had emboldened Putin.
Scenario 4: Putin goes beyond Ukraine attacking its neighbors
Photo: Getty Images
An emboldened Putin could decide to try to take more territory — something for which NATO is preparing by bolstering defenses on its eastern flank.
He could, for example, attack countries that neighbor Ukraine, blaming them for shipping in weapons. Earlier in the week a British military source said that during times of war an enemy supply base could be considered a legitimate target.
The UK has been "desperately worried" about weapons going in and out, fearing that airfields in NATOcountries used to supply them could come under attack.
Using that as a pretext for war, Putin could move forces across the border into Poland, Moldova, or try to take the Baltic States.
NATO would fight back but by then there would be a wider war in Europe in which anything could happen. The West would have to balance defense of Nato members with avoidance of escalation across the Continent.
Scenario 5: Nuclear conflict and World War Three
Photo: Pixabay
Ben Wallace, the defense secretary, believes that the West will not have to fight Putin, because after the invasion of Ukraine, Russian forces would be "exhausted".
At the same time, some analysts believe that the West cannot assume Putin’s "rationality" will rule out nuclear war.
A desperate man, humiliated with his forces depleted, could think there is nothing for him to lose by launching a shorter-range tactical nuclear weapon at a nearby state.
At the same time, General Sir Richard Barrons, former commander of Joint Forces Command, says that a nuclear war is a "remote prospect given the result is mutual destruction of Russia and the West".
Americans grow fond of Ukraine no less than of France
Photo: Pixabay
The New York Times cites the results of a poll, according to which American voters now feel about Ukraine as favorably as they do about France, Germany, and Japan.
As recently as a year ago, many Americans did not know what to make of Ukraine — if they knew anything about it at all. One-third of voters couldn’t say whether it was friendly or unfriendly to the U.S.
Not anymore. In a striking—if perhaps not surprising—shift over the last year and since Russia’s invasion, an overwhelming majority of Americans now say Ukraine is a friendly country.
In a new YouGov survey, 81% of Americans say Ukraine is either friendly or an ally, a figure that rivals or even exceeds that of many longtime U.S. allies like France or Japan. Only Britain, Canada, and Australia earned more favorable ratings from voters.
YouGov, an online polling firm, has tracked the American public’s views on dozens of countries since 2017.
In recent years, American attitudes toward Ukraine have shifted more than toward any other country. When the poll tested U.S. attitudes on Ukraine in September 2019, 36% of registered voters were not sure whether Ukraine was friendly or unfriendly. Only 41% called the nation friendly or an ally.
Now, only 10% aren’t sure whether Ukraine is friendly, a lower tally than for almost any other country. Nearly 70% of Americans now consider Russia an enemy, more than for any other country in the survey, including North Korea and Iran.
A little fly in the ointment
Exuberant public support for Ukraine has limits. Just 29% of voters characterized Kyiv unequivocally as an ally, a figure that's considerably lower than what the survey found for every ally with which the U.S. has a formal treaty, other than Turkey.
It's more like the 26% who said the same about Taiwan (in late 2021), whose relationship with the U.S. is intentionally ambiguous.
The Biden administration has said it is unwilling to intervene directly militarily because of the risk of a war with Russia. Polls show that voters overwhelmingly do not support direct military intervention either.
It is not clear whether the public understanding of Ukraine as a friendly but not allied country is partly because of the public's skepticism of intervention, or because the administration has been clear about the limits of the U.S. commitment to Ukraine’s defense.
Instead of an afterword. Although Vladimir Putin miscalculated about quickly capturing Ukraine, he still has the forces to capture or destroy key Ukrainian cities, and the loss of Kyiv would be tantamount to defeat, albeit temporarily.
There are different scenarios, from freezing the conflict for years to outright war with NATO and even a nuclear threat, and each of them can only be prevented by more clear support from the West, because it is the weakness of the Alliance and allies that inspires the Kremlin to increasingly lose touch with reality.
However, there is a greater chance that the Russian army will be depleted, which could give Ukraine a chance to reinforce itself (not without the help of the West), and the Russian elites and people to feel even greater consequences of the largest sanctions since World War Two. The support of the US people inspires the people of Ukraine, but this is definitely not enough, given Putin's plans and the genocide he has already unleashed. Ukraine has been on the defensive for 17 days.
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