18 November 2022 19:42

Politics

Where does Russia get missiles, why does Macron praise China, and how does Orbán blackmail the EU? A digest of Western media

Authors

Olexandra Zakharova , Hennadii Kats

Western media try to figure out how Russia could afford the November 15 attack given its limited stockpile of missiles; 80 countries joined a deal to refrain from urban bombing; and Emmanuel Macron said China’s pressure on Russia to end the war was useful. Meanwhile, Hungary refuses to support the plan for EU financial aid to Ukraine.

offers a digest of Western mass media at the end of the November 14–18 business week.

Is Russia’s stockpile of missiles dwindling?

The map of November 15 missile attacks

The 96-missile barrage fired across Ukraine on Tuesday was Russia’s biggest aerial attack of the war so far, The New York Times writes.

Meanwhile, Western and Ukrainian officials were saying for months that Moscow’s stockpile of missiles and other weapons was rapidly dwindling.

Thus, the Ukrainian defense minister, Oleksii Reznikov, said in October that Russia had burned through nearly 70% of its cache of the kinds of missiles that were largely used in the November 15 attack.

An intelligence report by the British Defense Ministry dated October 16 said the October 10 large-scale attack on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure had most likely degraded Russia’s long-range missile stocks.

In May, a Pentagon spokesman, John F. Kirby, said that Moscow was low on precision-guided missiles, having run through its supply "at a pretty fast clip."

How, then, did Russia manage to launch the widest-scale missile attack since the beginning of the full-blown invasion? Four possible scenarios are suggested.

Russia is turning to Iran and North Korea for weapons

Russia could get Fateh-110 missiles from Iran. Photo: Wikimedia

On Wednesday, Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III said Russia was reaching out to Iran and North Korea to replenish its missile stockpile.

"I do think that those countries will probably provide them some capability," Mr. Austin said.

The Ukrainian Air Force said it had shot down 10 Shahed drones during Tuesday’s attacks. a spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Forces Command, Yurii Ihnat, said it was also expected that Iran would send ballistic missiles to Russia.

The United States has accused North Korea of secretly shipping rockets and artillery shells to Russia, although Mr. Kirby said this month that it was unclear if the munitions had been delivered.

Both North Korea and Iran have denied supplying Russia with weapons since the full-scale invasion.

Is Russia building more missiles?

The number of Iskander launchers and missiles could have been increased before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February. Photo: Wikipedia

Janes, a defense intelligence firm, said Russia very likely stockpiled microchips and other technology necessary to build precision missiles before invading Ukraine in February 2022, possibly starting years ago, given Moscow’s deteriorating relations with the West after its illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014.

The Janes analysis, provided to The New York Times, noted that such microelectronic components were also used for civilian purposes and that Russia may have obtained them through third parties, such as states or private entities willing to risk the penalty of U.S. sanctions if caught.

Russia probably began producing high numbers of Iskanders, Kalibrs, and cruise missiles before the invasion, the analysis said.

Russia is using air defense missiles to launch attacks

Russia may use S-300 missiles to attack Ukraine. Photo: Wikipedia

In a smaller follow-up strike on Thursday, Russia fired at least 10 S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles against cities near the front line, according to the Ukrainian Air Force.

Russia’s increasing reliance on the S-300 as an attack weapon against ground targets in Ukraine has been one signal that it is running out of its cruise missiles or other, more conventional offensive weapons.

Russia may have been holding some weapons in reserve for war against NATO

Few, if any, Western officials have a clear account of the status of Russia’s arsenal or know precisely how many missiles remain in its stockpile, said Mark. F. Cancian, an expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

But, he said, Western militaries believe Russia has long kept a reserve of missiles and other weapons on hold in case it goes to war with NATO.

"They apparently have a withhold for a notional NATO attack," Mr. Cancian said, "which we would regard as absurd, but they regard it as a real possibility."

A ban on urban bombing is to be signed

Urban bombing leads to mostly civilian casualties. Photo: State Emergency Service of Ukraine

Eighty countries led by the US, UK and France have signed a declaration in Dublin pledging to refrain from urban bombing, The Guardian reports.

It’s the first time countries have agreed to curb the use of explosive weapons in populated areas.

The international agreement is a product of more than three years of negotiation. It was not endorsed by several countries, including Russia, China, Israel, India, and Ukraine.

Campaigners said they hope the agreement will help change military norms and lead to a taboo similar to those against chemical weapons or cluster bombs.

Russia didn’t endorse an agreement to refrain from urban bombing. Photo: State Emergency Service of Ukraine

Sahr Muhammedally, a director at the Center for Civilians in Conflict, said the use of explosive weapons in populated areas has become now the leading cause of civilian deaths in modern conflict.

"From Mosul to Tripoli, Mogadishu and Kharkiv, the list of examples is endless."

Data from Action on Armed Violence shows that 91% of those reported killed or injured by explosive weapons in populated areas in the past decade were civilians, rising to 98% when Russia targets towns and cities.

Although the agreement was first conceived against the backdrop of the relentless urban destruction in the Syrian civil war and conflicts in Gaza, Yemen and elsewhere, it has been given further momentum by the war in Ukraine.

Macron praised China for exerting pressure on Russia

Emmanuel Macron said China is useful for pressuring Russia over the war. Photo: Getty Images

According to French president Emmanuel Macron, China’s ability to pressure Russia is proving "extremely useful", as the international community ramps up efforts to stop the war in Ukraine, Financial Times wrote.

Macron met the Chinese president Xi Jinping on Tuesday at the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, where he helped secure a joint statement condemning the war in Ukraine.

Xi has refused to blame Moscow directly for the war and its effects, accepting Russian president Vladimir Putin’s argument that Nato’s eastward expansion over recent decades has threatened Russia’s security.

His administration has, however, expressed concern over the Russian president’s threats to use nuclear weapons and has never recognised Moscow’s annexation of various Ukrainian territories, including Crimea in 2014.

Xi Jinping, Macron added, had the ability to tell Putin that they work together and respect each other but the line on nuclear weapons should not be crossed.

"What we decided at the G20 with China, India and a lot of others around the table was very important because we expressed this concern — it was a call for peace," Macron said. "Russia received the message from the international community, and especially from China, about the fact that peace has to be restored."

Hungary proceeds with blackmailing the EU over aid to Ukraine

Viktor Orbán refused to support an aid plan to Ukraine. Photo: Getty Images

Hungary will not support a European Union plan to provide Ukraine with budget assistance in 2023, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said, as cited by The Washington Post.

Orbán said that while Hungary condemns Russia’s aggression and supports the Ukrainian people, he is not willing to put Ukraine’s interests before those of his own country.

The aid to Ukraine would involve loans with extremely favorable terms worth around 1.5 billion euros every month.

In total, Ukraine would receive 18 billion euros over the next year to help keep its energy and health care facilities running as well as to fund salaries and pension schemes.

Hungary’s refusal to endorse it threatens to derail the plan completely since changes to EU budget rules require the unanimous approval of member countries.

As an alternative to the EU aid plan, Orbán recommended that the EU’s 27 members determine how much they are willing to provide to Ukraine and distribute the sum in a "proportional and fair way" among themselves without jointly taking out loans to make the payments.

He said Hungary would be willing to provide Ukraine with 60-70 billion forints ($152–$178 million) from its own budget on bilateral terms — an amount he said would not fundamentally harm Hungary’s national interests.

Apart from the threat to veto the aid package for Ukraine, Hungary had also scuttled EU-wide adoption of a global corporate tax deal in June and campaigned heavily against sanctions on Russia.

Orbán argues such measures are destroying Europe’s economy and drawing the EU closer to entering the war itself. But some in the EU see the moves as a sign that Budapest is exerting leverage in an attempt to force the bloc to release billions in economic recovery funds and other money that was held up over concerns that Orbán has curtailed democratic norms and violated rule-of-law standards.