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How long Russia’s resources to last, when Ukraine to return Crimea, and what to happen to Russia next — Budanov's forecasts

When and how Russia’s war in Ukraine will end, according to tUkraine’s intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov. Photo: Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine

When and how Russia’s war in Ukraine will end, according to tUkraine’s intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov. Photo: Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine

Kyrylo Budanov, Head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, said that the active phase of the Russian-Ukrainian war would almost "reduce to zero" by the end of this year, and it would end with reaching the administrative border of Ukraine by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

In an interview with Ukrainska Pravda, he also said that, in general, Putin's plans for the complete takeover of Ukraine had not changed.

Quote"Of course, after three months of developments, they are adjusting their plans and are already preparing public opinion in Russia for the fact that, in principle, if they finish the occupation of Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kherson Oblasts, then this can also be considered a victory. However, the plans have not changed and, unfortunately, will not change further until we put an end to the issue of Putin and Russia in the form in which it exists now," he explained.

According to Budanov, Moscow has about a year left to wage a "normal war". He also added that by the end of 2022, Ukrainian forces "should, at a minimum, enter the territory of Crimea." In a more global perspective, the return of all temporarily occupied territories to Ukraine.

Ukraine’s intelligence chief considers two possible scenarios for the evolution of the situation for Russia after the end of the war:

  • "Changing the political leadership while formally maintaining the territorial integrity of Russia" (the population will put all the blame on Putin and his inner circle; the country will begin to withdraw its soldiers from all territories and countries occupied by the aggressor; the occupied lands will return to the countries they belong to; the Russian Federation will have to start with a clean slate).
  • "The division of Russia into three or more parts" (the collapse of the Russian Federation into at least three parts — new independent states).

Context. The results of a survey conducted by the KIIS show that 82% of Ukrainians consider it unacceptable to make any territorial concessions to end the war.

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