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US Department of Agriculture has improved forecasting of wheat harvest in Ukraine and its exports

Wheat export forecast has been raised to 20.5 million tons. Photo: SeaNews

Wheat export forecast has been raised to 20.5 million tons. Photo: SeaNews

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its June report has improved the forecast for the export of Ukrainian wheat in the 2021/2022 marketing year (MY, July—June) by 0.5 million tons compared to the May forecast—up to 20.5 million tons.

It also has improved the forecast for the wheat harvest in Ukraine in 2021 by the same 0.5 million tons—up to 29 million tons. The reason for the forecast revision is a long period of favorable weather conditions.

At the same time, the USDA has retained its forecast for corn exports from Ukraine at the level of 30.5 million tons, and the harvest—at the level of 37.5 million tons.

There are no reasons for Ukraine to restrict the export of agricultural crops this year, Roman Leshchenko, the Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food, stated on March 19.

World wheat production this year is expected to hit a record 794.4 million tons, and that is 5.5 million tons higher than the USDA's previous estimate. The increase in production will occur mainly due to the EU countries, Russia, and Ukraine.

Also, the USDA predicts an increase in world wheat consumption by 2.4 million tons to a record 791.1 million tons. The consumption growth will occur due to an increase in the use of wheat as animal feed.

Context. In March, the Ministry of Economy predicted the grain harvest this year at the level of 75 million tons.

From the beginning of 2020/2021 MY and as of June 11, Ukraine exported 42.94 million tons of grain and leguminous crops, and that is 22.4% less than on the same date of the previous MY. 16.11 million tons of wheat and 21.97 million tons of corn are planned to be exported.

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