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Ukraine: Rating of economic events in October

With the help of the experts, The Page has compiled a rating of economic events in October 2021. Within its framework, events in the Ukrainian economy and decisions of the authorities were assessed according to the degree of their potential impact on the economic situation in the country.

The signing of an Open Skies Agreement between Ukraine and the EU was the most significant positive event.

The record low coal reserves in the warehouses of TPPs and TPPs was the most significant negative one.

When compiling the rating, The Page editors selected 12 events and asked the experts were asked to rate them on a scale of –10 points to +10.

October rating experts:

  • Oleg Gorokhovskyi, Co-founder of Monobank;
  • Anatoliy Guley, Chairman of the Board of the Ukrainian Interbank Currency Exchange;
  • Taras Zagorodnyi, Managing Partner of the National Anticrisis Group;
  • Ivan Kompan, financier, Founder of First Kyiv Investment Club;
  • Borys Kushniruk, Chairman of the Expert and Analytical Council of the Ukrainian Analytical Center;
  • Valerii Pekar, entrepreneur, Adjunct Professor at the Kyiv-Mohyla Business School;
  • Serhii Fursa, investment banker, financial expert.

The Page's editorial board also rated the events.

Events included in the list and their average ratings:

  1. Coal reserves at TPPs are 3.5 times lower than the norm for this time of the year: –8.75.
  2. The Cabinet of Ministers provided state guarantees to Ukrenergo for the issue of Eurobonds in the amount of up to 22.8 billion UAH to pay off the debt to the producers of "green" electricity: +2.75.
  3. In the Q3, Naftogaz of Ukraine made a net profit of 8.5 billion UAH against a loss of 14.7 billion UAH a year ago: +1.5.
  4. The penalty charging for failure to provide information on the ultimate beneficial owners of companies has been postponed: +4.
  5. The Cabinet of Ministers imposed special accounts for settling regional gas companies for providing gas supply services to them: +2.71.
  6. Ukraine and the European Union signed an Open Skies Agreement: +4.13.
  7. The Bolshevik plant in Kyiv was sold at a privatization auction for 1.42 UAH billion: +3.63.
  8. The Cabinet of Ministers established the position of the Government Commissioner for Regulatory Policy: –2.5.
  9. Electricity imports from Belarus and Russia may resume, as an auction for selling the respective transmission capacities was held: –3.75.
  10. The Verkhovna Rada adopted a law on energy efficiency: –2.29.
  11. In October, the Ministry of Finance raised 22 UAH billion from the sale of sovereign bonds to the budget, of which 17.2 billion—on October 26: +0.63.
  12. The consumer sentiment index of Ukrainians, after increasing in August by 2.4 points, decreased by 4.5 points in September—to 73.7 points, that is, to the level of September 2020: –2.38.

Rating of economic events October-2021


Expert comments

Assessing the receipt of state guarantees by Ukrenergo, Taras Zagorodnyi noted that tariffs for "green" energy are overstated in Ukraine. They should be reduced to the average European ones, because we are now subsidizing an inefficient sector of the economy having our own generation.

With regard to the profits of Naftogaz, the expert said that the main function of this state-owned company was not making profit for itself, but to provide both the population and the industry with affordable energy and affordable gas.

Zagorodnyi did not see an economic rationale in the Open Skies Agreement. It is unclear how much this will increase the employment of Ukrainians, how it will impact the economy, and how much money will actually remain in the country.

In the law on energy efficiency, according to the expert, there are no economic incentives that would make it possible to increase such efficiency.

Borys Kushniruk recalled that there was little coal in the TPPs' warehouses and its caloric content was lower than the norm. Therefore, less electrical and thermal energy will be obtained from it.

He attributed the profit of Naftogaz to manipulations with the financial statements.

Thank 🎉