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Ukrainian Economy
Economy

Increase in wages and economy, decrease in inflation and unemployment: the macro forecast of the Cabinet of Ministers till 2025

Author
Anton Korzh

The Cabinet of Ministers has drawn up a government macro forecast for 2022—2024. It represents the dynamics of the possible development of the country's economy for this period, the forecast of the average wage in the country, inflation and unemployment levels. This is stated in Resolution No. 586, published on the CMU website.

Macro indicators forecast of Ukraine for 2022—2024:

  • average monthly wage taking adjusted for inflation in 2022 will increase by 4.4% (up to 15,300 UAH), in 2023—by 6.1% (up to 17,200 UAH thousand), in 2024—by 5.6% (up to 19,000 UAH);
  • unemployment in 2022 will increase by 8.5%, in 2023—by 8%, in 2024—by 7.8%;
  • nominal gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022 will amount to almost 5.4 trillion UAH, in 2023—about 6 trillion UAH, in 2024—over 6.6 trillion UAH;
  • average annual inflation in 2022 will be 7.2% at the beginning of the year and 6.2% by the end. In 2023, its indicators will be 6% and 5.3%, respectively, and in 2024—5.2% and 5%;
  • GDP in 2022 will grow by 3.8%, in 2023—by 4.7%, in 2024—by 5%;
  • index of industrial producers in 2022 will increase by 7.8%, and in 2023—2024—by 6.2% and 5.7%, respectively;
  • export and import indicators will increase in 2022 by 6.5%/9.2%, in 2023—by 7.7%/9.4%, in 2024—by 7.9%/8.6%, respectively;
  • trade balance deficit in 2022 will almost reach the level of 8.6 billion UAH with a further increase to 10.6 billion UAH and 12.1 billion UAH in 2023 and 2024.

Context. At an extraordinary meeting on May 31, 2021, the Cabinet of Ministers approved the budget declaration. The declaration has a direct impact on the formation of the state budget of Ukraine and is drafted for 2022—2024.

On June 3, the Cabinet of Ministers submitted a budget declaration to the Verkhovna Rada for consideration.

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Сabinet of ministers inflation