Isolation until 2023: how the world is being vaccinated and who, together with Ukraine, will end up in the red zone

Author

Kirill Danilchenko

On December 17, the UK began vaccination against covid—the first country in the world to allow the use of BioNTech/Pfizer medication. In 2020-2021, the British will receive 40 million doses at an average price of $ 15.5 per injection—two injections will be required to achieve long-lived immunity.

More than 1.4 million people have been vaccinated, including Prince Philip and Queen Elizabeth.

EU program

Since December 27, 450 million EU residents have also been covered by the vaccination program from a German corporation and its American partner. In the next three years, 300 million doses will be shipped to Europe under the contract—they will cost 4.6 billion euros.

In addition, vaccination centers with special refrigeration units and refrigerated vehicles capable of carrying out logistics at the required ultra-low temperatures—minus 70 degrees— be financed. Standard capacities cannot provide these storage conditions.

Centers in a former airport, mobile stations on buses, a former ice arena are quite serious investments.

In the next three years, 300 million doses will be shipped to Europe under the contract.

If taking into account paying for vaccination teams, containers with dry ice, the percentage of spoiled lots and paying for the transport leg from Lisbon to Sofia (this is a couple of thousand aircraft flights), the program can easily exceed 10-12 billion euros.

In this regard, the vaccine will also be purchased from the American manufacturer Moderna, and that does not require such stringent logistics measures—approximately 150-160 million doses.

Promised Land

Israel is also being actively vaccinated—there the records for the number of vaccinated people on the planet are even being broken. Apparently, by mid-April 2021, the Israelis plan to receive protection from COVID-19 by almost the entire country—perhaps excluding some disappearing percentage of refuseniks or ultra-Orthodox.

The population of Israel has begun to receive "covid passports"—darkon ha-yarok.

There is simply no other way to explain 18% of the population covered by the first injection in the first week of January 2021, 60% of the elderly who have already been vaccinated and the statements that after April Israel will return to their usual life.

Also, the population of Israel has begun to receive "covid passports"—darkon ha-yarok. For now, in the form of an electronic application on a mobile phone. This "green passport" will be loaded to those who have received the second dose of the vaccine and may be exempted from quarantine or be eligible to attend mass events.

In the future, the electronic document will be mandatory for leaving and entering the country—also one of the first in the world. Do you want to visit the resorts of Israel, take advantage of medical tourism (to treat cancer) or work at one of the highest hourly rates in the region? Be so kind as to get vaccinated or have a positive antibody test.

New reality

This creates a completely new economic situation, both in the MENA countries and in the future on the planet.

If (at least hypothetically) there was a chance to avoid blanket vaccination and its strict record, then Israel, where 6% of the personnel from the entire labor market are involved in tourism, would strive to do this.

In one form or another, a mechanism for recording those who have received immunity will be implemented.

But spending on immunization and the launch of passports, and only after that the opening of a sphere where hundreds of thousands of people have been paid 70% of their salaries since last spring, is a new reality recognition.

Reality, where tourism with the most severe restrictions has to be launched, and allow spectators to attend sports events with a mark about vaccination. Whether it will be a code-generating application like it is planned to implement in the US or a registry like in Spain is not that important..

But it seems that in one form or another, a mechanism for recording those who have received immunity will be implemented.

Red Dragon

China continues to forge ahead like a locomotive in the fight against the pandemic—as of January 10, 9 million doses of Sinopharm and Sinovac vaccines were injected free of charge in the country. A completely separate medication is used for the army: apart from the fact that it is developed by the Chinese-Canadian CanSino Biologics, little is known about it.

But the fact that the China’s PLA was actively used in the epidemic epicenter for supply, an aviation bridge and worked with military doctors teams, and they managed to avoid an outbreak in the troops, is quite eloquent.

Beijing is betting on keeping the system manageable rather than saving lives.

As well as the fact that, despite the lockdown in the civilian sector last spring, the defense industry's capacities were widely mobilized for the production of masks, consumables, and disinfectants. And although Beijing is far from the leader in the population percentage, in absolute terms it is definitely a record holder.

Unlike the EU that protects vulnerable population groups, Beijing works on health workers, customs, transport workers—betting on keeping the system manageable rather than saving lives.

Ukraine

Against this background, Ukraine, with its promises to purchase 1.9 million doses of the Chinese vaccine and wait for the COVAX mechanism to work, does not look just embarrassing. It illustrates the thesis— "the rich become richer in a crisis, and the poor become poorer"—as much as possible.

If we draw a map of possible access to vaccines, there will be only a few red zones in Europe—Bosnia, Moldova, Albania and us. Available in pharmacies—at best in autumn 2021, widespread vaccination—between 2022 and 2023.

This is not just a situation, like with polio or tetanus, when some countries defeated the disease, while others suffered for decades.

There is a situation where people without a "vaccination passport" may not be able to travel, study abroad and just do business. By April-May, Israel will begin to return to normal life. In the Q2, Ukraine will only receive the first batches of vaccines.

Naturally, the average spending per person in Israel's healthcare is $2000, and hardly $200 in Ukraine—it's hard to compare.

But at the same time, for example, Magen David Adom ("ambulance") is being supervised by the Logistics Service—otherwise it is impossible in a country where there are constant terrorist attacks and a sluggish military conflict.

Even if we get on the ball, there will be 2-3 years of the window when our neighbors are already vaccinated, and we are not.

And about 700 paramedic soldiers in 300 vaccination centers opened around the country help vaccinate more than 150 thousand people a day. In Shoham, near Ben Gurion Airport, the government has deployed a logistics center with a huge refrigerator. This has been done ALREADY. These are purely administrative measures and they work.

In Ukraine, there is a discussion—in February or March, the first doses of the Chinese vaccine will arrive in Boryspil, and there are rumors about VIP vaccination programs in private clinics. And refrigerators will start arriving only within a few weeks—only 1 for 250 thousand doses is available.

That is, even if we get on the ball, find investments, get vaccines on time, open regional vaccination centers and carry out a lot of administrative work, there will already be 2-3 years of window when our neighbors are already vaccinated, and we are not.

As much as I would like to write good news about vaccinations, but lockdowns of varying degrees of severity, restrictions during outbreaks and the defeat in free movement of those who cannot get the vaccine, Poland that lures our workforce with free vaccinations, and charity programs are the nearest reality for Ukraine.