In mid-March, Joe Biden stated that "Putin will have to pay" if proved that the Russian Federation again interfered in the US elections. On these expectations, the ruble crashed down against the dollar. And rightly so—when Iran "had to pay", the country—the largest exporter of crude oil—began to buy oil products abroad, and the latest protests with thousands of killed were because of the eggs price.
A call from the President of the United States to President Zelenskyy on April 2 with assurances of support—more than 40 minutes of conversation initiated by the United States. After this call, at least three US Air Force transport planes and one Canadian plane landed in Boryspil. And a Spokesman for the US Department of Defense told CNN that the United States was considering the transfer of additional warships to the Black Sea, in view of Moscow's actions.
What's happening in the Biden—Putin—Zelenskyy triangle?
War is always the continuation of politics by other means. However, as well as the threat of war.
And what is happening now around Ukraine and the concentration of the Russian forces near our borders cannot be called anything other than a threat and demonstration.
For everything is too convex and obvious.
The concentration of troops is being shooted from the drones and posted on the network, dozens of videos are being leaked from some substations, and video cuts with music are being dragged off by accounts with ten subscribers.
Classic information operation.
The real escalation at the front—either Debaltsevo, or Marinka, or the fight for Almaz, or Zholobok—began without the ritual dance haka, some driving of equipment and Kozak's stories about the "beginning of the end of Ukraine".
One fine morning, several battalions simply launched an attack, packets of rocket artillery flew, and the batteries on duty rumbled. There is no need to pound the chest on TV and ping pong trains across half the country. All the more so now, when there is a dozen shelling at the front per day, the statements about an unprecedented escalation from Peskov are frankly ridiculous.
However, the 30,000-40,000 personnel that the Russian Federation sent from Altai, Chelyabinsk, and Murmansk to base camps 150-250 km away from our borders is still not enough for something more than a show of force.
And there are no Federal National Guard Troops Service and the combined units of the Ministry of Internal Affairs in the columns—to restore order in the territories that are planned to be occupied.
There are no warning signs with the deployment of logistics infrastructure—in 1979, preparing the entry of a contingent into a much weaker militarily Afghanistan, there were called in almost 45,000 people from the reserve and 7,000 vehicles were mobilized.
There are no signs of supplies accumulation for at least 20-30 days of the operation—how much, by the way, did it take federal troops to reach and blockade the city of Grozny, which, for a second, is less than one Poltava? Suddenly, almost a month.
Because this is not a walk on the map—it is necessary to set up blocks and patrols, allocate a detachment of forces for escorting columns and actions against saboteurs, there will be non-combat losses, mine explosions, accidents.
But on March 25, three large landing ships and a corvette of the Baltic Fleet of the Russian Federation passed Gibraltar.
Again, there are official reports about the transfer of landing ships from the Caspian Sea, and there, navigation in the channel was opened only a few days ago.
The only thing missing is the orchestra with timpani and tambourines.
But here it is important to understand the context of what is happening around Ukraine. For the first time since the Cold War, NATO is transferring and deploying about 30,000 people in Eastern Europe.
Strategic bombers over Ukraine and the Baltic countries, US MQ-9 Reaper attack drones at Lask Air Base in Poland, missile defense elements in Romania and Poland.
During the past week alone, six reconnaissance drones and Poseidons have flown missions over Ukraine six times. Not so long ago, Romania received HIMARS rocket launchers capable of making strikes to a depth of 300 km. A Polish missile battery with Norwegian anti-ship missiles is being deployed near the port of Constanta, in the sea, where everyone is the Alliance member or alliy—only the Russian Federation remains as a conditional adversary.
It is obvious that the countries of Eastern Europe looked at how Moscow behaves in Transnistria, Abkhazia, and Ossetia and made the only correct choice in the mid-2000s. So that Igors Ivanoviches, reenactors from Moscow, do not run around their territory, and the pilots do not write memoirs about how they bombed Georgia.
Now, to protect new members after the annexation of Crimea, strike drones, anti-ship missiles, heavy rocket systems and NATO warships are located closer to the borders of the Russian Federation. And the buildup of forces leads to hysteria in the Kremlin.
Naturally, the Russians could not ignore the largest Alliance exercises since the collapse of the USSR—the main phase of Defender Europe 2021 is scheduled for April-May. Especially after—"Putin is the killer" and "will have to pay."
So 30,000-40,000 people in camps along the western border with Ukraine and in Crimea is, with a high degree of probability, a kind of response to NATO. Their main targets are the southern flank—Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, and Greece. Therefore, we see activity in the Crimea, the Southern Military District, and in the Black Sea Fleet.
In general, Joe Biden's assurances of support for Ukraine are a continuation of the American policy of isolating the Russian Federation against the background of ongoing aggression against most of its neighbors—its encirclement with a network of bases, regional alliances, anti-missile defense elements, and duty ships, where one salvo of cruise missiles from just one destroyer is close to a salvo of the entire Black Sea Fleet.
The usual words about the fight against the oligarchs in a telephone conversation are also understandable—the sanctions against Kolomoisky and his entourage, imposed at the beginning of March, are quite indicative and it is clear who exactly they are talking about. Needless to say, why do Americans need people in Ukraine’s policy who, against the background of the fact that billions of US taxpayers are being brought into the country, are withdrawing these billions from system banks?
But the main thing is, of course, the support of Ukraine by the West. White House press release is comprehensive:
"The leaders have agreed that democratic reforms and the fight against corruption are central for Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic aspirations."
The position is the same, regardless of the circumstances: reforms in the evening—chairs in the morning.
Today's statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation—"Ukraine's membership in NATO would threaten a large-scale escalation in Donbas and could lead to irreversible consequences for its statehood"—obviously outlines the reason for the Kremlin's phantom pains.
This support is reaching a level unacceptable for Moscow. Threats were voiced not only to Kyiv—a threat, in fact, is to the entire Alliance. Probably because after the NATO Enhanced Capability Program, British missile boats on credit and joint missions with strategic bombers, the MAP is just a stone's throw away.
However, today's saber-rattling around Ukraine perfectly reveals the thesis of the US Senator after Putin's Munich speech:
All the threats to our country perfectly illustrate why we must continue to head West. And no one has done more for this drift of Ukraine than the Kremlin regime.
