Ukraine may face a deficit in generating capacities from 2.5 GW in 2025 to 9 GW in 2031 if it does not install the required level of basic and semipeak generating capacities.
This is stated in the Ukrenergo’s Report on the Assessment of Adequacy (Sufficiency) of Generating Capacities for 2020
"The development of the UPS of Ukraine according to the base case indicates that already in 2025, its own generating capacities will not be enough to reliably cover the demand for electricity. To meet the needs of Ukrainian consumers in electric energy, it will be necessary to constantly increase its imports and significantly increase the throughput capacity of the sections between the UPS of Ukraine and the energy systems of neighboring countries," the document says.
The main reason for the likely deficit is the failure to comply with the National Emissions Reduction Plan for Large Combustion Plants (NERP), approved by the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine on November 8, 2017 (Order No. 796).
The NEС forecast states that already in 2025 the available capacity of the TPP may reach 7,489 MW (with 9,260 MW required for the reliable operation of the United Energy System of Ukraine). In 2031, the capacity of the TPP will be up to 1,242 MW (with the required 11,760 MW).
Ukrenergo's report contains forecast scenarios for the development of generating capacities in Ukraine until 2031.