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Barclays experts have called the emergence of herd immunity in Europe in autumn realistic

Despite the slow start of vaccinations and supply problems, the European Union may reach a level of population immunization against coronavirus of 70% by the end of September. This forecast was made in the report of the bank Barclays, to which the RBC agency refers.

Vaccine supplies to the EU are set to skyrocket in the Q2 of 2021, reaching 360 million doses (compared to 98 million in the Q1).

Currently, the average percentage of those who received the first dose of vaccine in the EU is 10%. The main vaccine used in the EU is Pfizer. Barclays predicts that by the end of the Q1, the EU will receive 59 million doses of the drug. AstraZeneca (30 million) is in second place. Pfizer plans to supply another 200 million doses to the EU in the Q2.

According to the report authors, the rate of vaccination in the EU will rise due to two factors. The first one is accelerating the pace of selling vaccines received by the European Union. If at the beginning of March the share of sold vaccines in France, Germany, Italy, and Spain was less than 30%, then by March 15 this figure in most countries exceeded 50%. The second one is the growth of supplies. In total, the EU should receive 98 million vaccines in the Q1, 360 million in the Q2, 597 million in the Q3, and 390 million in the Q4, Barclays predicts.

Context. In total, the European regulator has registered four vaccines: AstraZeneca, Pfizer, Moderna, and Johnson & Johnson. The European Commission have purchased 400 million doses of AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson vaccines, 600 million doses of Pfizer, and 160 million doses of Moderna each.

As of March 16, 62.3 million doses of vaccines were delivered to the EU countries, Norway, and Iceland, of which 48.1 million were used.The most common vaccine in Europe is Pfizer (42.4 million doses of this vaccine were delivered to 30 European countries), in second place—AstraZeneca (14.9 million doses), in third—Moderna (3.6 million).

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