Western experts and analysts are closely following how Russia's war in Ukraine unfolds. Now they admit that further developments could follow according to three scenarios, the least likely of which is the cessation of hostilities at Moscow’s initiative, CNN reports.
Three potential scenarios for the further development of Russia's war against Ukraine
- The Russian army will continue step by step to seize the key eastern regions — Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts.
- The fighting will come to a standstill and in this case Russia-Ukraine war will drag on for months or years. This, in turn, will lead to tremendous casualties on both sides and a crisis that will drain the global economy.
- The Kremlin will redefine previously announced war aims, declare victory, and set the stage to stop the war. Analysts consider this option less realistic.
The experts warn that if Ukraine's Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts are completely captured, President Vladimir Putin could begin to use the territory as a staging ground to push further into Ukraine. The Western analysts agree that the Russians are now in a better position in eastern Ukraine, but only because they outnumber Ukrainian troops.
Context. Recall, on Wednesday, June 1, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced a new $700 million military assistance package to Ukraine. It includes the M142 HIMARS MLRS and missiles with a firing range of up to 80 km. In addition, the package will contain air surveillance radars, Javelin anti-tank missiles, armor-piercing weapons, artillery shells, helicopters, tactical vehicles, and spare parts.
Kyiv has already got 4 MLRS from Washington, with 8 more coming soon. The first group of Ukrainian military will complete training on using rocket systems today, June 15. After that, the second group is expected to start training. The first MLRS are planned to be deployed next week.