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IMF expects Ukraine's public debt to increase to 86.2% of GDP in 2022

How much the Ukrainian public debt will increase this year. Photo: Mackenzie Marco/Unsplash

How much the Ukrainian public debt will increase this year. Photo: Mackenzie Marco/Unsplash

Gross public debt of Ukraine in 2022 over the war unleashed by Russia will increase to 86.2% of GDP after decreasing from 61% of GDP to 49% of GDP last year. This outlook is made by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Interfax-Ukraine reports.

It is noted that in subsequent years, public debt will remain at this new high level over a sharp expansion of the state budget deficit and GDP decline.

In particular, by the end of 2023, the IMF expects Ukraine's public debt at the level of 78% of GDP, 2024—78.7% of GDP, 2025—82.9% of GDP, 2026—88.7% of GDP, and in 2027—92.3% of GDP.

Context. Recall that the Fund predicts a decline in Ukraine's GDP in 2022 by 35% and so far refrains from assessing its dynamics in subsequent years over great uncertainty.

According to the IMF, this year the state budget deficit of Ukraine will increase to 17.8% of GDP from 4% of GDP in 2021. In subsequent years, it will remain at a very high level: in 2023 — 13.1% of GDP, 2024 — 11.9% of GDP, 2025-2026 — 10.9-10.8% of GDP, and will drop to single digits only in 2027 — 9.3% of GDP.

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