Economists from non-governmental organizations raised their forecasts for the exchange rate, GDP, and inflation for the Ukrainian economy by the end of 2023. The survey was presented by the Center for Economic Strategy on August 1.
The economists changed their assessment to a more optimistic one despite pessimistic forecasts for the duration of the war and expected disruptions in the Grain Deal. Governmental agencies also raised their forecasts as compared to their assessments in March.
The experts expect 2023 GDP growth to be 4.7%, although their March forecast was close to zero. The market expectations for the nominal end-of-year GDP in 2023 also rose in August from $155 billion to $174 billion.
"By now, the uncertainty has decreased significantly as compared to March, when there were huge variations between forecasts, and the economists are more or less agreeing that this growth will be substantial," said Maria Repko, Deputy Director of the CES.
The experts forecast that the prices will grow by 10–11.5%. In MArch, however, the price growth forecast was 14.5–18.5%.
The experts believe that the hryvnia to U.S. dollar exchange rate wouldn’t change substantially and will keep at the level of ₴36.6/$1, although it was expected in March to increase to ₴40.
Meanwhile, economic growth can slow down in 2024, the experts say. Adverse factors include problems in the agricultural sector, the currency exchange rate, and the national debt.
This forecast is based on the survey of four investment companies and non-governmental organizations, including Concorde Capital, Dragon Capital, ICU, Sense Bank, and the Institute of Economic Research and Policy Consulting together with the German Economic Team and Oxford Economics.