The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has downgraded the forecast for Ukraine’s economic decline as a result of the war to 30%. In March, it expected a 20% decline in GDP. This is reported on the bank's website.
In 2023, the EBRD expects a quick recovery of the Ukrainian economy — by 25%. But the actual rate of GDP growth will depend on how long the war in Ukraine drags on, the terms of the peace agreement, the extent of the recovery, and the number of refugees who have returned home.
The EBRD expects that by the end of 2023, Ukraine's GDP will be 12.5% below the pre-war level. The bank warned that all forecasts could be revised downwards if hostilities escalate or restrictions on the export of gas or other raw materials from Russia. For example, if gas supplies to Europe are cut off, per capita production in all countries where the bank operates in 2022 will be 2.3 p.p. lower than the baseline scenario, and 2 p.p. — in 2023.