Last days for buying dollars. What will happen to the exchange rate in September

Author

Diana Polunina

The dollar exchange rate in Ukraine in August was quite stable—during the month the hryvnia was on average at the level of 26.8 per dollar and did not reach the level of 27. At the same time, the euro depreciated somewhat—from 31.92 UAH, the value of this currency dropped to 31.69 UAH.

However, according to experts interviewed by , the hryvnia stable level will not last long—in September the national currency will begin to depreciate against the dollar and will cross the 27 UAH mark. And this already happened—on September 2, the hryvnia continued to weaken and rolled back to 27 UAH per dollar.

What will happen next, what will impact the exchange rate, at what level will the dollar, euro, and ruble be in Ukraine in September—in the article of .

Dollar exchange rate for September 2021

Experts from the group of macroeconomic analysis and forecasting Ukraine Economic Outlook note that in the fall of 2021, the hryvnia will devalue.

In the Weekly Economic Monitor, they explain that the volume of demand for non-cash currency from clients on the internal interbank market since August 20 is on average $24.4 million per day higher than the supply. Provided that the net balance of cash currency purchases by the population remains in the positive zone due to the surge in external tourism, the hryvnia is partially supported by the seasonal decrease in banks' own foreign exchange position in August. However, in September, when the rate reaches the level of 27-27.2 UAH, banks' assets in foreign currency, on the contrary, will show recovery.

The following factors will also foster the devaluation in September:

deterioration in the net balance of trade in goods and services from -$0.3 billion in August to -$0.82 billion;
the period of dividend payments by companies with foreign capital (up to -$1.7 billion);
payments on Eurobonds by a number of companies.

Experts summarize that by September 7, the dollar exchange rate in Ukraine will be at the level of 26.8—27 UAH, and by October 10 it will be 27.4—27.6 UAH.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko, analyst of the investment company Concorde Capital, agrees with the experts, believing that after the summer lull the hryvnia will move to a moderate seasonal devaluation in the autumn.

"This is due to business activity that is likely to lead to an increase in demand for currency. However, we do not exclude that a scenario of further moderate strengthening of the exchange rate or its stabilization at the level that we are witnessing now is possible. This can happen if business activity remains the same. We also do not exclude that non-residents may return to the market of hryvnia government bonds, and this will serve as an additional revaluation factor."

Evgeniya Akhtyrko

analyst at the investment company Concorde Capital

Evgeniya Akhtyrko

analyst at the investment company Concorde Capital

Akhtyrko predicts the dollar rate against the hryvnia in September at the level of 26.9—27 UAH.

Yurii Netesanyi, Managing Partner at Atlant Finance, gives a broader forecast and says that in September one should expect an increase in the price of the American currency of about 27—27.5 UAH. According to him, the following will be among the main factors of this:

state’s settlements of foreign exchange liabilities. In September, Ukraine must pay off about $3 billion of its obligations on foreign and domestic loans in foreign currency;
increase in demand for foreign exchange from importers.

Forecast of the euro and ruble exchange rate in September

Traditionally, the euro rate will be determined by the international currency market, Netesanyi notes. There, the euro in a wide range can be expected at the level of $1.16—1.20, and in a narrow range—$1.17—1.19. In hryvnia equivalent, the euro exchange rate during September should be expected in a narrow range—31.5—32.5 UAH per euro with possible short-term fluctuations beyond these boundaries in a wider corridor—31—33 per euro.

As for the ruble, the currency of the Russian Federation during September is expected to be in the range of 0.36—0.37 UAH per one ruble.