Until September 7, the dollar rate in Ukraine will be at the level of 26.8-27 UAH, and by October 10 it will reach 27.4-27.6 UAH. This is stated in the "Weekly Economic Monitor" from Ukraine Economic Outlook.
"In total, we keep our forecast for the hryvnia autumn devaluation," the forecast states
The experts note that the demand for non-cash currency from clients on the internal interbank market from August 20 on average $24.4 million per day is higher than supply.
"While maintaining the net balance of foreign currency purchases by the population in the positive zone due to a surge in external tourism in August, the hryvnia is partially supported by the seasonal decrease in banks' own foreign exchange position in August," the review reads.
At the same time, in September, when the rate reaches the level of 27-27.2 UAH, banks' assets in foreign currency will show recovery. The following factors will also foster the devaluation in September:
- deterioration in the net balance of trade in goods and services from -$0.3 billion in August to -$0.82 billion;
- the period of dividend payments by companies with foreign capital (up to -$1.7 billion);
- payments on Eurobonds by a number of companies.
Experts also explain that on August 25-30, the hryvnia continued to weaken and rolled back from 26.65 UAH to 26.86 UAH per dollar. At the same time, on Saturday and Monday, the NBU came out with interventions, restraining the rate in a narrowly defined corridor—on Saturday, the regulator sold $20 million, not allowing the moving beyond 26.97 UAH, and on Monday twice put up an offer to buy out currency at 26.85 UAH. As for the euro, during this period the hryvnia weakened against the currency from 31.17 UAH to 31.7 UAH.
At the same time, experts note that on August 30, the hryvnia slightly strengthened against the dollar on the interbank market—from 26.93 UAH to 26.86 UAH, but continued to weaken against the euro due to the decline in the US Dollar Index by 0.5% on Friday.