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The dollar and the euro are rising in exchange offices. What will happen to the exchange rate by the end of summer

The selling rate of the cash dollar and euro in exchange offices of banks in Kyiv on August 17 increased in comparison with Monday, 16th. For instance, as of 9:30, it has appreciated by 3.16 kopecks—up to 26.85 UAH, and the purchase rate—by 4.89 kopecks—up to 26.64 UAH.

At the same time, the average euro buying rate increased by 6.12 kopecks—up to 31.25 UAH, and the selling rate increased by 4.22 kopecks—up to 31.61 UAH, according to BIN.ua. However, experts do not expect the currencies to strengthen against the hryvnia, at least until early September.

Forecast of the dollar and euro rates until the end of August

According to Yurii Netesanyi, Managing Partner of Atlant Finance, the hryvnia will strengthen against the dollar until September, the approximate range will be 26.5-27 UAH per dollar. The national currency will also strengthen against the euro. The analyst expects that it will be in the range of 31-32 UAH for another two weeks.

"After that, we should expect a change in trend and strengthening of all currencies in relation to the hryvnia."

Yurii Netesanyi

Yurii Netesanyi

Partner at Atlant Finance

He attributes this to the following factors:

  • Now exports exceed imports and more currencies are sold on the interbank market than they are bought. In addition, the National Bank has been buying a lot of foreign currency in recent weeks. From the autumn, according to him, the dynamics will change, and that is primarily associated with the purchase of energy resources (gas and others), their injection into storage facilities, and due to this demand will increase, and exports will decrease.
  • Also, Netesanyi points out the agrarians who will sell the crops that have been harvested and which today have nowhere to store.
  • In September, Ukraine will have to pay about $3 billion of its obligations on foreign and domestic loans in foreign currency, and it will get only $2.7 billion from the International Monetary Fund. The deficit, he said, will also be covered by the demand for foreign currency.

Context. As a reminder, earlier the Ministry of Economy provided a forecast of the dollar rate until 2024.

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