The cost of individual offers of Ukrainian wheat with protein 12.5% and 11.5% reached about $250 per tonne and $245 per tonne FOB Berdyansk with delivery in August.
The price has increased by $5 per tonne against Friday July 30 and is already $20-23 per tonne higher than the proposals in mid-July, Refinitiv Agriculture reports.
The price hike occurred due to a decrease in the forecast for the wheat harvest in Russia for 2021. At the same time, the main impetus to pricing was received on Monday, August 2, when SovEcon analysts trimmed their forecast for wheat production in Russia by 5.9 million tonnes against the forecast of mid-July 2021—to 76.4 million tonnes.
At the same time, in July, the USDA announced an estimate of 85 million tons.
The market is accelerated by several other factors in the form of the expected downgrades in the forecast for wheat production in Canada and the United States, as well as problems with the quality indicators of wheat in Ukraine, Russia, and Europe.
Export quotations for Ukrainian barley also rose to their highest level in a month due to strong external demand and low supply in the domestic market.
Refinitiv monitoring argues that the coverage of previously concluded contracts and the rapid increase in the number of public tenders have led to an imbalance in prices.