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20—30% of Ukrainian refugees will not return home — military psychologist’s estimate

The prospect of a European education for children will be defining in the decision to stay abroad. Photo: Voice of America

The prospect of a European education for children will be defining in the decision to stay abroad. Photo: Voice of America

Ukraine expects a rapid decline in population in the wake of a full-scale war and the departure of millions of people abroad. Accordingly, there will be a reformatting of both the economy and value-based models.

Oleh Pokalchuk, military and social psychologist, stressed this in an interview with The Page.

Quote"20—30% of those who went abroad, in my opinion, will not return home, and this is about 1.5 million Ukrainians. This is not a transitory phenomenon — so it will be with certain segments: one comes, looks around and leaves again," the expert predicts.

Considering that mainly women with children left the country. and children already go to schools there and have begun to adapt, the reason for not returning will be the desire of mothers to better carve out the lives of their children.

Quote"If they see a clear prospect for the future of their children there, a 100% guarantee that they have no reasons for returning here, despite all the sentiment. If something does not suit them — the wrong country, the wrong place, they can try options in other countries. If they don’t succeed, then they will return," the psychologist stressed.

In his opinion, there will also be a second wave, when elderly people will leave, whose children already live in the West and will be able to support them. For example, to Spain, Italy, and Portugal, where there are a lot of emigrants of the 90s, where it is safer and more economically stable.

Quote"There is an old saying: a country occupies as much area as it can cultivate land. If we apply this to the 21st century, then as many people can live relatively effectively here as they can work and support the unemployed," Pokalchuk explained.

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