Inflation forecast in Ukraine: what products will rise in price and why

In Ukraine, the cost of a number of goods is expected to rise by May. Thus, vegetables in 2021 have already risen in price by 25%, but a sharp rise in prices will last until May and may reach 75%. But with the start of a new harvest, vegetables will plummet in price.

At the same time, prices for eggs, meat, and flour are expected to rise by 10-15% before Easter. This was stated by the Executive Director of the Economic Discussion Club Oleh Pendzin in a commentary to the media outlet Obozrevatel.

In particular, the bread price is expected to rise by 6%. The bread price will be affected by an increase in the price of cereals, but this trend is likely to change if the pandemic subsides and Ukraine has a good harvest. This situation can reduce the bread price by 10-15% in the second half of the year.

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The rise in prices is affected by the rise in prices for oil products and the rise in wages in Ukraine, analyst Maksym Parkhomenko believes. According to him, the cost of oil can increase the cost of fuel to 30 UAH per liter.

Prices for imported products will also rise by 10%. In addition, the price of butter and products that are made from it will rise.

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On average, products in Ukraine rise in price annually by 5-10%. Thus, over the past four years, the food basket has risen in price by 30%—from 3958 to 5614 UAH, the overall inflation rate for this period was 32.6%.

In general, the cumulative rise in wages was supposed to compensate for the rise in prices, but in practice it all depends on what products are consumed.

Context. In April 2020, the Cabinet of Ministers introduced state regulation of prices for socially significant food products, medicines, and medical and anti-epidemic goods.

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