Nominal investment return in 2021
The government of El Salvador now owns 1,391 bitcoins, having spent $73.2 million to buy them. The President of the country Nayib Bukele stated that bitcoin would reach the price of 100,000 in 2021. Now these coins are worth about 59 million dollars.
Investors in many asset classes experienced similar disappointments last year. has analyzed what would have happened on January 3, 2022 with the hryvnia investments of Ukrainians that they would have made on the first working day of 2021, January 4.
Recall that the official rate of consumer inflation at the end of 2021 in Ukraine amounted to 10%.
The official exchange rate on January 4, 2021 (January 3, 2022) was as follows:
- dollar—28.27 (27.28) UAH;
- euro—34.74 (30.92) UAH;
- ruble—0.378 (0.364) UAH.
Thus, investments in foreign currency in a year would have brought negative returns, even without taking into account the losses related to the difference in the currencies’ buying and selling rates.
In periods shorter than 12 months, it was hypothetically possible to earn on the exchange rate gamblin, since during the year the dollar fluctuated between 26.06–28.43 UAH, the euro—29.90–34.94 UAH, and the ruble—0.356–0.386 UAH.
The official price for precious metals set by the National Bank as of 04.01.21 (as of 03.01.22) was as follows:
- gold—53,200 (49,115) UAH per troy ounce (31.1 g);
- silver—744 (624) UAH;
- platinum—30,203 (26,332) UAH.
Thus, investments in precious metals throughout 2021 showed a negative return even without taking into account the losses related to the difference in the metals’s buying and selling rates.
During the year, the price of gold in Ukraine fluctuated between 46,003–55,324 UAH.
On the world market, the cost of gold against the US dollar fell last year by 3.6% to 1,820 per ounce. In August 2020, the price of gold hit an all-time high of $2,070. Since then, the asset has fallen in price by almost 12%.
The dynamics of the official price for gold
Deposit rates differ depending on the bank and deposit conditions. The Ukrainian index of deposit rates calculated by the Reuters agency gives basic understanding of their level.
For the individuals, this index on deposits with the period of 12 months on January 4, 2021 was as follows:
- hryvnia—8.78% (rates on shorter deposits were even lower);
Thus, the yield on deposits in the national currency was less than the inflation rate. In addition, it should be taken into account that the income from deposits is taxed at a combined rate of 19.5%.
Residential real estate
It is impossible to accurately assess the profitability of investments in real estate, since both the properties themselves (flats) and the conditions for their purchase vary greatly. The statistics of the real estate market gives some understanding of the situation.
For example, according to the agency Blagovist, the price for 1 square meter of the residential real estate in Kyiv was $1,730 in January 2021 (all flats), and in December—$2,000.
The price of bitcoin on January 17, 2021 was $35,840, and on January 4, 2022, it was $45,837. Throughout the year, it fluctuated in the range of $29,794–67,528.
Over the same period, the value of Ethereum, the largest altcoin by capitalization, tripled. In 2021, the token Solana rose in price by 47 times.
Bitcoin price dynamics
Purchase of OVDPs
The nominal value of domestic government loan bonds (OVDPs in Ukrainian) is 1,000 UAH, USD 1,000, or EUR 1,000. Individuals buy OVDPs only through banks, with paying commissions to the broker, depository, and bank. Each bank sets the minimum amount of investment in OVDPs individually.
At the auction on January 5, 2021, 12-month hryvnia bonds were placed with a weighted average yield of 11.67%.
Note that the income from OVDPs is not subject to any taxes and fees.
Nominal yield at the end of 2021 for different types of investments, %
Residential real estate 15.5